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General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Date: 2019-03-18
Browse times: 5

In 2016, it became a turning point in the modern coal chemical industry. The Ministry of Environmental Protection approved the environmental impact report of six modern coal chemical projects, and the same period in 2015 was an embarrassing “zero approval”. Specifically, in the six projects approved by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2016, including the 1.8 million tons/year coal-to-oil project in Chang'an, Shanxi, and the indirect liquefaction demonstration of 2 million tons/year of coal in Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal-to-Liquid Co., Ltd. The project has a total of 2 coal-to-liquids projects; including CNOOC Datong 4 billion cubic meters/year coal gas project, Suxin Energy and Feng Co., Ltd. 4 billion standard/year coal-to-gas project, Inner Mongolia North Control 4 billion cubic meters per year. The gas project has a total of 3 coal-to-gas projects; and 1 coal-to-olefins project, namely, China Power Investment and Total Joint Venture with an annual output of 800,000 tons/year of coal-based polyolefin project.

General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Source of data: public information

  Since the second half of 2016, the prosperity of the coal chemical industry has ushered in an upward turning point. First, international crude oil prices have risen more than 80% from the lowest value of 27.79 yuan per barrel in early 2016. Under the background of the upward shift of the crude oil price center, some coal chemical projects have shown their better economic performance. On the other hand, policy dividends, including the opening of the EIA, have continued. Recently, the news that the state decided to exempt the coal-to-liquids demonstration project from the five-year consumption tax also reflects China's supportive attitude towards the modern coal chemical industry.

General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Data source: public information, Zhiyan consulting

Unit cost structure of coal-to-liquids demonstration project

General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Data source: public information, Zhiyan consulting

Coal-to-oil project tax and post-tax profit relationship diagram

General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Source of data: public information

   2. Coal-based ethylene glycol technology is economical in the current oil price background.

  China is the world's largest consumer and importer of ethylene glycol. The downstream application of ethylene glycol accounts for about nine percent to become the polyester industry, and is an important raw material for polyester fiber, beverage bottles, antifreeze, and refrigerants. The manufacturing process of ethylene glycol includes petroleum method, coal method, natural gas method, etc. Among them, petroleum method is the mainstream process on the market by virtue of its mature technology. According to statistics, about 65% of China's existing ethylene glycol production capacity uses naphtha/ethylene as a raw material, coal accounts for about 23%, and about 11% uses methanol as a raw material. From a profit perspective, the natural gas process has a good cost advantage and is the main ethylene glycol production process in the Middle East. Starting from the actual national conditions, the advantages of the coal-to-ethylene glycol process are mainly reflected on the one hand, which will effectively reduce China's dependence on petroleum. At the same time, the coal process has long-term significance for the rational utilization of coal resources with obvious advantages. The most popular process route for coal-based ethylene glycol is the oxalate method, which has a large advantage in generating production costs due to less intermediate links.

The main process route of coal to ethylene glycol

General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Source of data: public information

    Global ethylene glycol production capacity is mainly concentrated in the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia is China's most important source of ethylene glycol imports. In 2016, China imported a total of 7.255 million tons of ethylene glycol and imported 3.346 million tons of Saudi Arabia, accounting for 46.04% of the total imports. At this stage, China's ethylene glycol production is far from meeting the actual demand.

China's total imports of ethylene glycol and imports from Saudi Arabia

General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Source of data: public information

Saudi Arabia accounts for the proportion of total ethylene glycol imports in China (%)

General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Source of data: public information

China's ethylene glycol supply and demand balance sheet in recent years

General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Source of data: public information

  3. The scale of equipment investment can be expected, and the field of coal chemical industry is deeply accumulated.

     In modern coal chemical project investment, the value of equipment investment accounts for about 55%, and the rest includes installation engineering, construction engineering, design construction period interest expenses, etc., accounting for 20%, 8% and 17% respectively. Specific to the equipment investment composition, including pressure vessels, pump and valve compressors, heat exchange equipment, pipe network, air separation devices, etc., the value of the proportion of 40%, 20%, 13%, 10% and 5%. According to this value, investment in pump and valve compressor equipment accounts for about 11% of the total investment in coal chemical industry. Further analysis, in the total revenue of pumps and vacuum equipment, compressors and valves in the industry statistics over the years, the proportion of valves is about 38%~40%. Based on this, the proportion of valves in the total investment of modern coal chemical projects is considered. About 4% to 5%.

Modern coal chemical project investment composition

General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Data source: public information, Zhiyan consulting

Modern coal chemical equipment investment split

General Analysis of the Development of China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry in

Data source: public information, Zhiyan consulting

    Taking 2015 as the base year, China's coal-to-liquids, coal-to-natural gas, coal-to-olefins and coal-based ethylene glycol have growth space of 922~10.22 million tons/year, 139-169 billion cubic meters/year, and 8.08 million respectively. Tons per year and 388 to 5.88 million tons per year. After calculation, it is estimated that the total investment in the field of modern coal chemical industry in the five years from 2016 to 2020 is about 564.96 billion yuan to 6,249.6 billion yuan, corresponding to the demand for related valves of 28.248 billion yuan to 31.248 billion yuan, that is, the average annual market demand is 5.65 billion yuan ~ 6.25 billion yuan.


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